'Fickle and fitful': What to expect from the weather in November

A dusting of snow this week was a reminder that despite the warm weather in September and October, winter is coming.

According to Environment Canada, 2.8 cm of snow was recorded at the Ottawa Airport on Monday, the first snowfall of the season.

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Temperatures in Ottawa ended up a bit below average for the last two days of October, with a chill in the air on Halloween night. Looking ahead to November, the first week appears to be relatively average, with seasonal highs and more rain than snow, though a chance of snow is still in the forecast.

Cooling things down early will be critical for the Rideau Canal Skateway, a winter staple in Ottawa. Work began on setting up vendor equipment Tuesday and will continue until the coming Monday. Last winter, the Skateway didn't open at all for skating.

Looking deeper into November, what can Ottawa expect?

Environment Canada's senior climatologist David Phillips says we might be in for a bit of a chill, but it's too soon to write the warmer (than average) weather off just yet.

"Normal in Ottawa this time of the year would be a high of about 8 and a low of about 1," he said. "So, we're not going to see this week as being above normal, it's kind of at normal, and next week we see a little bit more of a cool-off."

Phillips said that as we approach Remembrance Day, any snow that might fall could have a bit more staying power than the short-lived sprinkle on Monday.

"But I wouldn't write the final chapter of the nice weather," Phillips said. "Mid-November, late-November, we could see a warm up again. I think this is the time where we're going to see the fickle and fitful kind of beginning to winter. It looks and feels like winter, but then it comes back and forth. That's the kind of playout we have for the next several weeks."

Last year, there was a high of 16.2 C in Ottawa on Nov. 1. The monthly average mean temperature was 3.3 C.

November is typically the month when Ottawa sees its first fall day with a high temperature below 0 C. Between 2012 and 2022, the earliest day with a high below 0 C was Nov. 8, 2019, when the high reached -0.7 C. The latest was Nov. 25, 2012, with a high of -1.8 C. Last year, the first day below 0 C in November was on Nov. 17, but there was a warmup near the end of the month, with a double-digit high on Nov. 26, and a high of 7.4 C on Nov. 30.

Snow is also not unusual in November, with some notable snowfalls in the capital over the last 10 years. Ottawa received 12.8 cm of snow on between Nov. 11 and 12, 2019; there was a 20.7-cm wallop on Nov. 27, 2013; and a 14.6-cm snowfall on Nov. 16, 2018.

Also of note is November 2015, when 0.6 cm fell on Nov. 24, the only snow officially recorded that entire month.