Environment Canada forecaster bets a 'Loonie or two' the Rideau Canal Skateway will open this winter

The Rideau Canal Skateway is seen in Ottawa as it remains closed to the public, on Thursday, Feb. 16, 2023. (Spencer Colby/THE CANADIAN PRESS)

While the Rideau Canal Skateway remains closed for the Family Day long weekend, Environment Canada's top meteorologist is not ready to write the obituary for skating on the canal this winter.

"I got a Loonie or two on the fact that there will be some skating on the Rideau," senior meteorologist David Phillips told Newstalk 580 CFRA's Ottawa at Work with Patricia Boal.

The National Capital Commission says it has not been able to open the world's largest skating rink this winter due to the "persistent above-normal seasonal temperatures".

The Rideau Canal Skateway has never not opened for the winter since the first season in 1971, and the latest opening ever was Feb. 2, 2002.

Boal asked Phillips whether the NCC should throw in the towel on the idea of opening the Rideau Canal Skateway this winter.

"You mentioned about throwing in the towel, I hope the people looking after the Rideau Canal don't because I think something is coming," Phillips said Friday morning.

"I think what we're going to see in March, certainly the end of February we're going to see more sustained winter weather.

"Our forecast for March is showing colder than normal across the Ottawa Valley. Now colder than normal in March is still eight degrees warmer than colder than normal in January, but still it would be a sustained kind of cold and I think that's the key, not just one or two days."

The Rideau Canal Skateway is a popular tourist attraction in Ottawa during the winter, and one of the main attractions during Winterlude. This is the first time the skateway has not been open during the winter festival.

Environment Canada's forecast calls for above seasonal temperatures on Saturday and Sunday, which will not help the Rideau Canal Skateway ice. Phillips says a system moving into the Ottawa area on Monday night may be the shift in weather the NCC needs to open the skateway.

"Monday we see a weather system moving across northern Ontario ….But then as it turns colder it will bring the snow, and I think that's the moment that I think we see a sustained amount of cold for the rest of February and we're saying a good amount of March," Phillips said.

The Rideau Canal Skateway has closed in March four times over the past 10 years. The latest closing date for the Rideau Canal in the past 20 years was March 16 in 2003 and 2005.

The NCC is optimistic the Rideau Canal Skateway will open this winter.

"We remain hopeful that we’ll be able to welcome skaters to the Skateway this year. We will reassess conditions in the middle of next week after 48 hours of colder weather," the NCC told CTV News Ottawa on Thursday.