Will Ottawa have a white Christmas?

Christmas is approaching and that has many asking whether it will be a white one, just like the ones we used to know.

Ottawa received 12 cm of snow in November, officially, but it’s all since melted as warmer temperatures linger over the capital. So far in December, we’ve seen less than a centimetre.

A “white Christmas” is defined as having at least 2 cm of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

David Phillips, Environment and Climate Change Canada’s senior climatologist, told Newstalk 580 CFRA’s Ottawa Now with Kristy Cameron that it’s still too close to call.

“That’s always a tough call when we have so many days to go before Christmas,” he said. “It used to be that you’d dream about it and it was there, but now you have to almost pray for it in Ottawa.”

Phillips said white Christmases were basically guaranteed decades ago, but the odds of Christmas being green have increased.

“It used to be, 50 years ago, there was an 85 per cent chance of a white Christmas so it was a done deal, it was just going to happen,” he explained. “In the last 10 to 15 years, it’s more like 70 per cent. You’ve lost some of that Christmassy look and feel. In the last seven years, four have been white and three have been green.”

Tuesday and Wednesday’s weather is rainy with temperatures around four degrees warmer than normal. While temperatures around the freezing mark are forecast for the end of the week and into the weekend, there’s very little snow in the immediate forecast.

“In the next seven days, I see temperatures that won’t be as balmy as they are today or tomorrow, but still, at the freezing mark. I see fog more than flurries so my sense is it’s going to be touch and go,” Phillips said.

He does expect the colder air to move into Ottawa by the winter solstice and there is still hope that this Christmas could be white.

“I’ll bet a couple of loonies on the fact that the cooler weather around the first day of winter, the 21st, will come and I think there will be some white stuff on the ground, but hey, that’s just my thinking,” he said.

Cold air is in the province, he noted, but the warmer air is keeping it at bay for now.

“I can tell you this morning, Armstrong, Ontario (about 540 km northwest of Ottawa) was about -37 degrees. It was on your back doorstep! But here was this southerly air pushing through, the cold air was dammed up there and not coming.”

In the meantime, Phillips says you can take advantage of the warmer air right now.

“Talk about getting Christmas lights up, this is the time to do it. If you’ve procrastinated, go for it now because, hey, it’s going to cool off.”