Ottawa's wastewater signal for COVID-19 still hasn't peaked

A scientist monitoring the COVID-19 viral signal in Ottawa's wastewater says the viral signal still hasn't peaked.

With ongoing restrictions on PCR testing in Ontario, the local reading of viral signal in the wastewater has become a closely monitored indicator of the level of COVID-19 in the community and recent data shows the virus is more present than ever.

Co-lead investigator on the wastewater monitoring project Tyson Graber told Newstalk 580 CFRA's The Morning Rush with Bill Carroll that levels are about three times as high as the last Omicron peak in January.

"Is it at the peak this week? We'll see, but we don't know what the ceiling will be."

New figures from the monitoring project are delayed but are expected later today.

Ottawa Public Health reported one new COVID-19 related death on Wednesday and a slight drop in the number of residents hospitalized with COVID-19.

Since the pandemic began, 767 residents of Ottawa have died after contracting COVID-19.

There are 15 residents in hospital because of an active case of COVID-19, down from 16 on Tuesday. One person remains in intensive care.

Graber noted that hospitalizations tend to rise shortly after the wastewater signal does, often at a similar rate, but that's not the case for this wave.

"The question is 'why?' Explanations are things like increased immunity. We know that this is probably the case. Increased booster uptake," he said. "We note that in other jurisdictions that both natural immunity and vaccine immunity can provide enough protection to reduce hospitalizations, even in the midst of a large incidence of infection."

He also said it's possible people with the BA.2 variant shed more viral signal than they would have with previous variants.

"We don't know for sure. It's an educated guess."

OPH hospitalization figures only represent Ottawa residents who are in hospital because of an active case of COVID-19. Local hospitals report higher figures, which include patients who were admitted for reasons other than COVID-19 but have tested positive and patients who are not from Ottawa.

Here is a look at how many COVID-19 patients are in each hospital:

• The Ottawa Hospital: 52 patients
• Queensway Carleton Hospital: 11 patients
• Montfort Hospital: Nine patients
• CHEO: Five patients

OPH reported 193 new laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday. Daily case counts are an underrepresentation of the true level of COVID-19 in the community because PCR testing in Ontario remains restricted to certain high-risk populations.

There are eight new outbreaks in the city’s long-term care homes, retirement homes, hospitals or other congregate settings, bringing the total to 46.

Ottawa's medical officer of health, Dr. Vera Etches, issued a special statement Wednesday, urging residents to keep gatherings small this Easter long weekend.

Ontario health officials reported 1,332 people in hospitals across the province with COVID-19 on Wednesday, including 182 in ICU. Another 13 Ontarians have died.

OTTAWA'S KEY COVID-19 STATISTICS

• COVID-19 cases per 100,000 (April 5 to 11): 124.2 (up from 119.5)
• Seven-day average of positivity rate in the Ottawa community, excluding long-term care homes (April 12): 18.3 per cent
• Known active cases: 1,735 (-27)

COVID-19 VACCINES IN OTTAWA

These figures are updated every Monday.

• Ottawa residents with 1 dose (5+): 915,034 (+184)
• Ottawa residents with 2 doses (5+): 878,368 (+696)
• Ottawa residents with 3 doses (12+): 568,136 (+2,584)
• Share of population five and older with at least one dose: 92 per cent
• Share of population five and older fully vaccinated: 89 per cent
• Share of population 12 and older with at least three doses: 62 per cent

*Statistics on Ottawa residents with one or two doses include anyone with an Ottawa postal code who was vaccinated anywhere in Ontario.

AROUND THE REGION

• Eastern Ontario Health Unit: 8 in hospital, 1 in ICU
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health: 15 in hospital, 3 in ICU
• Kingston, Frontenac, Lennox & Addington Public Health: 10 in hospital, 2 in ICU
• Leeds, Grenville and Lanark District Health Unit: 7 in hospital, 4 in ICU
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit: 11 in hospital, 2 in ICU
• Outaouais (Gatineau and western Quebec): 48 in hospital, 1 in ICU

These figures are based on the latest data from each respective health unit at the time of publishing.

COVID-19 OUTBREAKS

Ottawa Public Health is currently reporting active outbreaks in the following locations:

• 7 long-term care homes
• 14 retirement homes
• 7 hospital units
• 18 other congregate settings (group homes, supported independent living, etc.)

OPH no longer reports outbreaks in schools and childcare settings nor community outbreaks, such as those linked to local businesses, religious institutions, or sports and recreation activities.

A full list of locations with active outbreaks is available on OPH's COVID-19 dashboard.