Ottawa doc on Ont. science table does not feel political pressure

OTTAWA -

An Ottawa doctor who sits on Ontario's COVID-19 Science Table says he disagrees with allegations of political influence by a now former science table member.

Dr. David Fisman, an epidemiologist at University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, announced his resignation from the table publicly on Monday on social media. He alleged in a letter dated Aug. 20 that he has been "increasingly uncomfortable with the degree to which political considerations appear to be driving outputs from the table, or at least the degree to which these outputs are shared in a transparent matter with the public."

Speaking on Newstalk 580 CFRA's "Ottawa Now with Kristy Cameron" on Monday, Dr. Doug Manuel, a senior scientist with the Ottawa Hospital who sits on the science advisory table, said he and his colleagues did not share the concerns expressed by Fisman.

"The emails that are going around the science table this afternoon are all about how they didn't feel that David's comments represent their experience on the science table," Manuel said, adding that he's known Fisman for many years and considers him a great scientist.

"How I kind of feel … the science table is this little island of science and objectivity and openness in this big sea of opaqueness," Manuel said. "As a scientist, you're living in this really stressful political environment but the principles and how we're acting on the science table, I think, are outstanding. How well are we achieving that goal, I think David has some concerns about."

Fisman said the science table has modelling that predicts "a grim fall" and he publicly asked why those projections aren't being released.

“I don’t understand why they’re not releasing that. It’s important for people to understand what lies ahead, and what the stakes are,” Fisman wrote on Twitter.

When asked about whether the advisory table has presentable modelling “in hand,” the communications advisor said that is not the case.

“We’re currently working on consensus modelling that we’ll release when it’s ready, but I don’t know exactly when that will be,” Robert Steiner said in a statement to CTV News Toronto.

Manuel, who said he hadn't spoken to Fisman, told CFRA there are challenges when it comes to modelling on Ontario.

"In the United States and Europe, they have ensembles of like 20 different individual models and in Ontario and Canada we see a little model come out now and then," Manuel said. "I think we could do a much better job of disclosing the evidence, and models, and data. We're not very good at this in Canada."

Manuel said he does not believe there is any political influence at all on the table, but he thinks scientists do sometimes second-guess themselves.

"When we create a science report, we say, 'How is this going to be read when this hits the premier's desk?' And I think that's the problem."

Manuel gave an example from the spring.

"We had these models that said, I think it was a 12 per cent increase in cases if schools remained open and that's all that the premier remembered," he said. "It was a mistake. We shouldn't have said 12 per cent. That was the only thing we commented on. We didn't comment on restaurants, we didn't comment on masks, it was just about schools. It was trying to say that's the high limit so schools can remain open and it was interpreted a different way."

Manuel said the science table should have included figures for all sectors or none, but they only included schools.

"That number stood out like a sore thumb, so how we packed that and reported that wasn't interpreted as it was intended," he said. "We should have put out estimates, as much as possible for every sector, but we only did one."

Manuel stressed that the interpretation of the science table's reports can lead to second-guessing among scientists, but he stressed that he does not feel there is any political influence being exerted.

"I would call the science table an oasis of openness and dialog and disclosure of conflict of interest," he said. "The chairs have been really trying to create this environment where you can really speak your mind and you can go against the grain of the discussion. We never have any politicians around the science table. But we're a little oasis in this storm and you are influenced by the storm."