COVID-19 caseload in Ottawa shifting to children under 10, data suggest

A staff member checks a student's temperature before entering the school. (Photo by Yan Krukov from Pexels)

OTTAWA -

As Health Canada reviews the possibility of approving COVID-19 vaccinations for kids aged five to 11, data from Ottawa Public Health suggest the local caseload appears to be shifting onto the city's unvaccinated children.

There were 218 reported cases of COVID-19 in children under 10 in the month of October, which is the highest number of new cases among all age categories tracked by OPH. For much of the pandemic, people in their 20s usually had the highest number of new cases by age, but that figure was 158 cases in October.

In September, 291 children under 10 tested positive for COVID-19, compared to 322 people in their 20s; however, when looking at cases per 100,000 population and not raw numbers, the difference is starker. September's rate of cases per 100,000 population among kids under 10 was 264.6—the highest among age groups—compared to 199.4 for people in their 20s

In October, the case rate per 100,000 population for kids under 10 was 198.2, again the highest among all age groups, while people in their 20s saw a dramatic drop to a rate of 97.8 cases per 100,000 population.

As of Oct. 28, 76 per cent of people in their 20s were considered fully vaccinated, according to data from OPH.

These rates also differ from the fall of 2020. While cases did rise among children last September and October, they also rose among all age categories, most notably in senior citizens.

In October 2020, when no one was vaccinated, the rate of COVID-19 among children under 10 was 185.5 per 100,000 for the month. It was 847.6 for people 90 and older. OPH reported 75 cases in people 90 and older and 204 cases in children under 10. Among the 20 to 29 set, OPH reported 555 cases in total for a rate of 343.7.

In October 2021, the rate of COVID-19 among the population 90 and older was 33.9 per 100,000. There have been three cases reported in individuals 90 or older in all of October 2021.

The share of new cases in kids under 10 is also higher year-over-year. In October 2020, kids under 10 had 7.8 per cent of all the cases reported that month. In October 2021, 22.6 per cent of all cases reported were in kids under 10.

Cases do not correlate with hospitalizations in children

While a greater caseload of COVID-19 is being found in children, it is not correlating to an increase in hospitalizations among that age group.

OPH has reported just 10 hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in total among children under 10 since the pandemic began. OPH data show the monthly hospitalization rate per 100 residents with confirmed COVID-19 among 5-to-11-year-olds was zero for September and October. The rate among children 4 and under ticked up to 0.8 in September but was back at zero in October.

There were zero cases of anyone under the age of 20 with COVID-19 in hospitals in October, according to OPH data compiled by CTV News Ottawa. There was one person under 10 in hospital in early September.

No one in Ottawa aged 0 to 9 or aged 10 to 19 has died of COVID-19 to date.

Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, and generally rise several days or more after cases begin increasing, but the overall cumulative level of children under 10 being admitted to hospital with COVID-19 remains the lowest among all age groups.

Approval for vaccinating children likely close behind after U.S. gives green light

All eyes are on Health Canada after officials with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine for children aged five to 11 on Friday.

Data presented to the FDA show the shot is 90 per cent effective in preventing COVID-19 in children and there have been no serious side effects.

Officials are still reviewing the data submitted to Health Canada, which was delivered later than it was in the U.S., meaning it could still be a few weeks before a final decision is made.

The formula for children differs slightly from Pfizer-BioNTech's adult formulation, meaning Pfizer will need to ship new vials of the children's vaccine to Canada, which will be distributed to the provinces.

Canada is expecting 2.9 million doses, if approved, which is enough for every child to get their first dose.

In a statement to CTV News, Ottawa Public Health said it encourages parents to have their children vaccinated against COVID-19 once the vaccine is available.

"Ottawa Public Health encourages everyone to receive a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as they are eligible including children, once approved. Only vaccines that Health Canada determines to be safe and effective will be approved for use in Canada and available in Ontario after independent and thorough scientific reviews for safety, efficacy and quality," the statement said.

"The higher the vaccination rates are in our community, the better chance we have of protecting those around us and keeping COVID-19 levels in the community and schools low."

Moderna is also expected to submit an application for its children's vaccine in Canada in the coming days and weeks.

METHODOLOGY

Statistics in this article came from Ottawa Public Health's daily snapshot reports. Figures for cases in October 2021 were calculated by subtracting the number of total cases in each age category as reported by OPH on Oct. 31 from the numbers reported on Oct. 1.

A 2020 population estimate was used to calculate the rate per 100,000 population.