40 years of elections show Ottawa voters not afraid to flip the script
Ottawa is the seat of the federal government and is home to tens of thousands of federal public servants, but is Ottawa a Liberal stronghold or do the winds of change affect voters here as well?
An analysis of electoral results going back more than 40 years suggests the voters of Ottawa could provide a sign for what type of government will govern from heart of downtown.
Ottawa has grown over the years from five ridings representing the city in 1980 to eight in 2021. In each federal election but one, the party with the plurality of seats in the city ultimately turns out to be the one with the plurality of seats in Parliament.
Take the Jean Chrétien years, for example. Ottawa was solidly Liberal in those days. There were six ridings in the city, and voters in each of them sent a Liberal to the House of Commons.
That changed when Stephen Harper became Prime Minister in 2006. There were seven ridings in the Ottawa area and four of them had Conservative representatives.
A similar trend can be seen in 1980 and 1984. Four Liberals and one Progressive Conservative were elected in Ottawa in 1980, and the Liberals formed government. In '84, three Progressive Conservatives, one Liberal and one New Democrat were voted in and the Progressive Conservative party formed the government.
The 1988 election was a notable exception, with the city and its newly created riding of Carleton-Gloucester, electing a full slate of Liberal candidates. Brian Mulroney and his Progressive Conservative Party maintained the majority they won in 1984, though they lost nearly three dozen seats.
Since then, Ottawa's voters have largely voted for the eventual government of the day.
There are notable caveats at the riding level. For example, Ottawa-Vanier is considered to be one of the safest Liberal strongholds in Canada. Voters there have voted for a Liberal in every election since 1887, going back to the days when the riding was known as "Ottawa East" and "Russell" before that. Ottawa South has similarly been solidly Liberal since its creation in 1988, though only two people have ever represented the riding in that time: John Manley and David McGuinty.
The riding of Ottawa Centre is a unique battleground in the city, and the only local riding to send a New Democrat to the House of Commons in the past 40 years. While voters in the riding in the heart of the city have sometimes sent Liberals down the street to Parliament, including most recently with outgoing cabinet minister Catherine McKenna, the seat does have strong ties to the NDP. The late Paul Dewar represented Ottawa Centre federally for many years. Before him, former NDP Leader Ed Broadbent briefly held the seat.
The suburban ridings of Ottawa West—Nepean and Orléans often change hands whenever a new government is swept in. Voters in the two ridings, known earlier as Ottawa West and Carleton—Gloucester, respectively, sent Liberals to the House of Commons during the Chrétien and Martin years, but elected Conservatives as Stephen Harper gained power. The Conservatives held those seats until the Liberal sweep in 2015.
Voters head to the polls on Sept. 20, 2021.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Quebec man who threatened Trudeau, Legault online sentenced to 20 months in jail
A Quebec man who pleaded guilty to threatening Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Premier François Legault has been sentenced to 20 months in jail.
Grandparents killed in wrong-way crash on Hwy. 401 identified
A 60-year-old man and a 55-year-old woman killed in a wrong-way crash on Highway 401 earlier this week have been identified by the Consulate General of India in Toronto.
The kids from 'Mrs. Doubtfire are all SUPER grown up now, and we're not OK
The adorable trio of child actors from the 1993 classic comedy 'Mrs. Doubtfire,' which starred the late and great Robin Williams, are all grown up and looking back on their seminal time together.
Parliamentary report on Emergencies Act decision is 18 months past due — and counting
The erstwhile group of senators and MPs studying the federal government's invocation of the Emergencies Act over the "Freedom Convoy" was supposed to present its findings in December. December of 2022, that is.
Drone footage shows Ukrainian village battered to ruins as residents flee Russian advance
The Ukrainian village of Ocheretyne has been battered by fighting, drone footage obtained by The Associated Press shows. The village has been a target for Russian forces in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.
Egypt media cite progress in truce talks as Israel downplays chances of end to war with Hamas
A delegation of the Palestinian militant group Hamas was in Cairo on Saturday as Egyptian state media reported "noticeable progress" in ongoing cease-fire talks with Israel while an Israeli official downplayed the prospects for a full end to the war.
Bystander livestreams during Charlotte standoff show an ever-growing appetite for social media video
Saing Chhoeun was locked out of his Charlotte, N.C., home on Monday as law enforcement with high-powered rifles descended into his yard and garage, using a car as a shield as they were met with a shower of gunfire from the direction of his neighbor's house.
Britney Spears 'home and safe' after paramedics responded to an incident at the Chateau Marmont, source tells CNN
A source close to singer Britney Spears tells CNN that the pop star is 'home and safe' after she had a 'major fight' with her boyfriend on Wednesday night at the Chateau Marmont in West Hollywood.
TD worst-case scenario more likely after drug money laundering allegations: analyst
TD Bank Group could be hit with more severe penalties than previously expected, says a banking analyst after a report that the investigation it faces in the U.S. is tied to laundering illicit fentanyl profits.