Ottawa likely to see increase in COVID-19 transmission when mask mandate ends: Expert

A member of Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table warns Ottawa will likely see an increase in COVID-19 transmission when mask mandates are lifted across the province on Monday.

However, Ottawa Hospital senior scientist Dr. Doug Manuel says he's feeling "better than ever" about the COVID-19 situation in Ottawa heading into the spring.

"We have a lot of pressures to increase transmission with masks coming off and (COVID-19 variant) BA. 2 and we will get more variants," Manuel told CTV Morning Live.

"So we're not turning our back on COVID, we have to very careful but it's feeling better."

On Monday, Ontario will lift the mandate requiring masks in most indoor public settings, including schools, bars and restaurants, shopping malls and cinemas.

On Thursday, the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table said with mask mandates ending and the arrival of the BA.2 Omicron subvariant, hospital ICU occupancy could increase by a third to 300 patients by May.

Dr. Manuel says he expects to see increases in wastewater monitoring indicators and cases in the weeks ahead due to the lifting of the mask mandate and the arrival of the BA. 2 variant.

"We've been flattening out and we're pretty much flat and now we're doing a bunch of things that are going to increase transmission – taking masks off and BA.2 is coming in more strongly, and those are all going to increase transmission," Manuel said.

CTV Morning Live host Annette Goerner asked Manuel about his concern level as more COVID-19 restrictions are lifted.

"I think we've really made some major milestones getting our overall (immunity) community level up – the easy way through vaccinations, and the hard way through acquired infection," Manuel said on Friday.

"So in the last few weeks I've actually kind of felt like a bit of weight off my shoulders for the first time since last summer. I was concerned about January and February since the fall and we're kind of through that Omicron wave and through the darkest months of winter, it's been incredible."

Manuel says while community immunity is increasing through vaccination and transmission, he is sill concerned about some members of the community.

"We are going to see increases, and I'm shifting more to concern about our vulnerable (population).. as it opens up," Manuel said.

"How are they going to be able to get out there and interact with society safely when we're all taking our masks off."

Ottawa Public Health says it anticipates seeing an increase in COVID-19 transmission "as there are more opportunities for infection" when restrictions are removed.

Ottawa's deputy medical officer of health Dr. Brent Moloughney said Thursday that wastewater levels and the positivity rate of those being tested are increasing, likely indicating an increase in transmission.

"We have Omicron, which is the most transmissible variant that we've had so far. The levels if you look at the amount of virus we have in the wastewater system here in Ottawa it's higher than it was in October or November of last year. So there's more COVID around," Moloughney told Newstalk 580 CFRA.

"So we have to remember that because you can come to the false conclusion that the mandates are lifting next week and everything is okay, well it's certainly better than it was earlier this year when we were in the midst of the Omicron wave, but there's still a fair bit of COVID out there."

Moloughney says if Ottawa Public Health sees COVID-19 indicators trending "upward in a concerning way", it will work with Ontario to "assess options" to reduce transmission.

The health unit is encouraging everyone to get their third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.