Green Christmas? Ottawa's top doctor says it will take 'something dramatic' to move to least-restrictive zone

OTTAWA -- Ottawa's medical officer of health says many indicators are pointing to a "slow decline" of COVID-19 transmission in Ottawa, but it would take "something dramatic" for Ottawa to move into the "green" zone by Christmas.

Dr. Vera Etches spoke with reporters shortly after Ottawa Public Health reported 11 new cases of COVID-19 in Ottawa on Tuesday, the lowest one-day increase in cases since Sept. 1.

"Overall, many indicators point to a slow decline in transmission of COVID-19 in Ottawa, and this is directly thanks to the people in Ottawa," said Dr. Etches.

"It's clear we know what we need to do to slow the spread of COVID in the community and forging on with the protective behaviours that we're using now can keep decreasing the level of virus and it will help us avoid hospitalizations and deaths, and the closures of businesses and all the negative consequences that can bring."

Dr. Etches urged all residents to "go back to the basics," including wearing a mask, washing your hands, maintain physical distancing and staying home when you are sick.

Ottawa is currently in the "orange-restrict" zone, which includes restrictions on bar, restaurant and food establishment hours and seating capacity, and capacity limits at gyms and fitness centres.

On Monday, Ontario's Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams said he hopes the province will be in the "green zone" by Christmas, which is aimed at focusing on "education and awareness of public health and workplace safety measures."

CTVNewsOttawa.ca asked Dr. Etches if she thinks it is possible for Ottawa to move into the "green zone" within the next five weeks.

"I think it's going to take something dramatic to change the trajectory we're on, which is a slow decline," said Dr. Etches  

"We have four, five weeks until some of the holidays. I think we need to stay in this direction that we're going with the protection we're providing each other with our behaviours that decrease transmission, but it's a slow, slow decline."

Dr. Etches notes Ottawa's positivity rate is 2.4 per cent, and "it hasn't been moving that much." The medical officer of health also notes Ottawa's cases per 100,000 is also very high.

The threshold for the "orange-restrict" zone is 25 to 39.9 cases per 100,000, a positivity rate of 1.3 to 2.4 per cent and Rt level of 1 to 1.2. The "yellow-protect" thresholds is 10 to 24.9 cases per 100,000 and a positivity rate of 0.5 to 1.2 per cent. The "green-prevent" thresholds is less than 10 cases per 100,000 and a positivity rate of less than 0.5 per cent.

When asked about the low number of COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, Dr. Etches noted there would be a variation on COVID-19 cases each day because of testing patterns on weekends.

"I don't think we can make too much out of 11; actually it could be a lot higher tomorrow, I would expect that on average we'll probably be similar to where we were last week," said Dr. Etches.

"I talked about we're turning the curve, but it's not dropping rapidly. What makes me think we're more in a stable situation rather than really clear decline that's going to get us to really nice low levels of COVID-19 in the community is that the hospitalizations are still pretty stable."