OTTAWA -- Ottawa’s top doctor is urging residents and businesses to “proceed cautiously” when the stay-at-home order ends and the economy begins to open up after the Family Day long weekend.

The Ontario government has announced that the stay-at-home order for Ottawa and eastern Ontario will end on Feb. 16, then the regions will move back into the tiered restrictions system based on COVID-19 indicators.

The Ontario government will announce Friday the colour-coded zones for all 28 regions moving out of the stay-at-home order next week, including Ottawa and eastern Ontario.

In a special statement Thursday afternoon, Medical Officer of Health Dr. Vera Etches said Ottawa will likely transition to the “Orange-Restrict” zone when the shutdown measures end next week.

"Current monitoring indicators would put us in the Orange-Restrict zone, however we have seen how quickly things can change so this is not yet a guarantee," said Dr. Etches.

Under the “Orange-Restrict” zone in Ontario’s COVID-19 provincial framework, businesses can reopen for in-person shopping and restaurants can open for in-person dining, with restrictions on capacity and the number of people sitting at a table.

Ottawa was in the "Orange-Restrict" zone when Ontario imposed the lockdown on Dec. 26. 

"I want to thank the people of Ottawa for once again getting us to a place where we can gradually and cautiously reopen schools and some businesses. We know this hasn’t been easy. But the fact that we are in a position to slowly reopen is direct proof that our actions matter," said Dr. Etches. "My advice doesn’t change: we must continue with our routine behaviours that we know keep COVID-19 transmission low: wear a mask, limit close contact to the people you live with, stay two metres apart from others, stay home when you’re sick except to get tested and practice proper hand hygiene."

Ottawa Public Health is asking residents not to travel outside the region unless it is for essential reasons.

Some epidemiologists have said the new, more contagious variants of COVID-19 will trigger a third wave in April that could result in another lockdown.

During an appearance on Newstalk 580 CFRA, host Leslie Roberts asked Dr. Etches whether she feels comfortable reopening the economy given the new variants.

“I think we need to proceed cautiously. There is certainly evidence that things could grow when you have more contacts between people,” Etches said.

“It’s hard to imagine that we won’t see an increase in COVID in our community again. It is up to all of us to understand that risk and to continue with the behaviours that worked for us in the fall of limiting our contacts between each other.

“The COVID variants won’t spread if we’re two metres away from others, outside of our household. We need to be strict about that.”

The Ontario government will announce on Friday what restrictions will be in place for Ottawa when the stay-at-home order ends.

“I really don’t want to see us getting into another waive, another lockdown – so we’ll be sending signals to the population when we see the risk rising,” Etches said on Newstalk 580 CFRA. 

There are six confirmed cases of the U.K. variant and one confirmed cased of a variant first discovered in South Africa here in Ottawa, according to the latest public health data.

“So if we see more variants of concern, if we see evidence of transmission within the community of variants of concern – we want to catch things early,” said Etches.

Ottawa’s medical officer of health says every positive test for COVID-19 in Ottawa is screened to determine if there is a variant concern or not.

“We definitely don’t have the protection we need yet from vaccination, so our behaviours to keep COVID under control over the next few months are really, really key,” said Etches.

Roberts asked Etches that given the projections on the COVID-19 variants becoming the dominant strain in Ontario by March, if the economic reopening could be short lived.

“I hope not. It is a bit in our hands. We know it’s important to have things open and to have employment and to be able to have the supports that people need. But we also know that when the COVID levels are too high, that trumps everything in terms of our health system functioning and where it can go with exponential growth,” said Dr. Etches.

“I think we’ve learned from December what the driver can be; it’s the social connections, it’s letting our guard down with friends and family.”

MASKS, DISTANCING NEEDED FOR MONTHS

With more COVID-19 vaccines expected to arrive in Ottawa in March and through the spring, Etches says masking and physical distancing measures will need to remain in place for months.

Roberts asked Etches what she will be looking for to say “we’ve got this” and begin to relax some of the measures designed to stop the spread of COVID-19.

“I think we want to have some hope by seeing different stages of protection come from the vaccine program. We can see our long-term care home and retirement residents are now getting that protection. We’re going to see people over 80, then people over 75 and that should give us some positive sentiment we’re protecting people from hospitalizations and death while we do need to maintain the behaviours of masks and distance for many months,” said Etches.

“We will start to see, I hope and take encouragement from, a decrease in hospitalizations. We expect to see that start to take hold before the start of the summer.”

Etches says Ottawa and Canada will learn from other countries where we see they’re protecting the population and limiting the spread of COVID-19.

“This isn’t forever, we will be able to relax some measures but certainly we’re still for the next couple of months needing to be very cautious.”