What La Nina could mean for Ottawa's winter weather

Environment Canada's senior weather climatologist says Ottawa will see "more of a winter than last year," as it experiences a possible La Nina weather event this year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center says there is a 60 per cent chance of a weak La Nina event developing this winter. La Nina is part of a natural climate cycle that can cause extreme weather across the planet, and La Nina is the cool phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

Environment Canada says La Nina is the "appearance of cooler than normal weather in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. It occurs due to increases in the strength of normal patterns of trade wind circulation."

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David Phillips tells CTV Morning Live that "all of the signs seem to point to a La Nina."

"This is colder water than normal, and it usually produces an opposite effect than the El Niño."

Phillips says it's a "safe bet" that it will be colder this winter than last winter in Ottawa, "but the other thing that has changed is not only the presence of El Nino and La Nina but also climate change. Our winters aren't what they used to be."

"What we have is kind of a tug-of-war this winter," Phillips said, noting climate change is "creating milder winters."

"My fearless forecast, and the Americans say the same thing, it's going to be a milder than normal winter, but more of a winter than last year.  It won't be a harsh winter, won't be memorable, won't be record-breaking misery. It will just be even milder than a traditional or classic winter in Ottawa."

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Phillips jokes "we cancelled winter" last year in Ottawa, with temperatures four degrees warmer than normal and less snow. Phillips says Ottawa will also receive more snow this winter.

"You are the snowiest national capital in the world, and you weren't living up to your reputation last year," Phillips said Thursday morning. "You only had 60 per cent of what you normally get. We think that there will be more active weather, so I think that we will see a bit more snow."

"People who love the look and the feel of winter, this will be a better winter."

With files from The Associated Press