OTTAWA -- COVID-19 cases in Ottawa have been slowly going down over the past few weeks and the vaccination rate continues to rise.

But experts say we still have a ways to go before we can declare victory.

One of those experts is CHEO research scientist Dr. Tyson Graber. He monitors levels of COVID-19 in the city's wastewater and says it continues to predict the cases in our city.

“We saw trends in the wastewater going down over the last couple of weeks, and the cases followed,” says Graber.

Although the cases might be dropping, the number of deaths is not. Fifty-one deaths due to COVID-19 have been reported in Ottawa so far this month compared to 41 in all of April.

“I should note that the case positivity is actually still quite high,” says Graber. “So the disease burden in the city is still high, relative to what we saw last summer.”

Ottawa Public Health says Ottawa's weekly average testing positivity rate was 5.7 per cent for the week ending May 23.

Graber also says, based on what he sees in the wastewater, the third wave in Ottawa could be coming to an end very soon

“I believe this is the end of this particular wave,” says Graber. “Whether or not this is the last wave is up to us.”

Epidemiologist Dr. Colin Furness says Ontario’s lockdown is working and it has played a big part in getting the numbers to shrink.

“It really is right in line with what’s been predicted,” says Furness. “It is directly a result of the interventions, what are called the non-pharmaceutical interventions, stay-at-home orders and other kinds of rules and restrictions that no one likes. It has greatly reduced mobility, contacts and gatherings.”

On April 8, the Ford government announced a province-wide stay-at-home order. It was extended to June 2 to help get COVID numbers down even lower.

“I am please to report, since the last provincial update last Thursday, Ontario’s daily case count has remained below 2,000 cases per day and has been gradually going down.” says Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Associate Chief Medical Officer of Health.

The active cases are trending downward in Ottawa as well. On April 19, we peaked at 3,412 active cases. On Tuesday, Ottawa Public Health reported 855.

Furness says we can’t rush a reopening.

“Let’s say tomorrow, to throw everything wide open, we would end up with a rebound,” says Furness, “and that's because, although vaccination is very effective, and vaccination is going very strong, we still have millions of Ontarians who are not vaccinated.”

Ontario’s reopening plan has set a date of June 14 for step one, which includes a minimum vaccination threshold of 60 per cent of Ontarians having their first dose. Ottawa is already at 58 per cent for adults 18 and older, while Ontario as a whole is at 52 per cent.

“If we hit 60 per cent in the next few days it’s tempting to say, let's open up sooner,” says Furness, “but it's not just when you hit that, it’s that you really need to leave a few weeks for the vaccine to have its effect.”

Step one allows outdoor gatherings of up to 10 people, putdoor dining with up to four people per table, and non-essential retail at 15 per cent capacity.

“It’s really important to open slowly,” says Furness. “That’s why it's really important not to declare victory because as soon as you do that and you stop being vigilant, it’s kind of like taking your parachute off halfway through your descent. It’s not a good idea.”

With 48 new cases Tuesday, and 43 on Monday, these last two days have had the lowest daily case counts in Ottawa since March 9 when 40 cases were reported.

“It’s not over yet,” says Graber, “but we’re quite confident that we will see the wastewater signal continue to go down in the next few weeks in Ottawa.”