Housing prices to rise 4.5 per cent in Ottawa in 2024, Royal LePage says

Housing prices will increase by an average of 4.5 per cent in Ottawa by the end of 2024 as the real estate market returns closer to normal next year, according to Royal LePage.

The Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast says the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase to $771,942 in the fourth quarter of 2024 from $738,700 in the fourth quarter this year.

In a statement released on Thursday, Royal LePage says any drop in mortgage rates could boost activity in Ottawa's real estate market.

"The Ottawa market is heavily influenced by interest rates. Even if we see only a modest decrease in rates by the Bank of Canada mid-way through 2024, this move could spark a flurry of buying activity leading into our late summer and early fall market," Jason Ralph, broker of record with Royal LePage Team Realty, said in a statement. "These days, only those homeowners who must move for personal reasons are listing their homes."

The report from Royal LePage says the housing price forecast is based on the prediction that the Bank of Canada has concluded its interest rate hikes and that the key lending rate will hold steady at five per cent through the first half of next year.

Royal LePage's Market Survey Forecast says prices for a single-family detached home in Ottawa will increase 4 per cent in 2024 to $884,000 from $850,000 this year. The estimated cost of a condominium in Ottawa is expected to increase five per cent to $407,190.

"We are expecting a brisk spring market next year," Ralph said. "Should we see a drop in interest rates, market activity will intensify, resulting in an incline in home prices in the later months of the year and into 2025."

The Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast says the aggregate price of a home is set to increase 5.5 per cent across Canada next year. Calgary will see the largest increase at 8 per cent, while Toronto and Montreal are forecast to see housing prices rise 6 per cent.