40 years of elections show Ottawa voters not afraid to flip the script
Ottawa is the seat of the federal government and is home to tens of thousands of federal public servants, but is Ottawa a Liberal stronghold or do the winds of change affect voters here as well?
An analysis of electoral results going back more than 40 years suggests the voters of Ottawa could provide a sign for what type of government will govern from heart of downtown.
Ottawa has grown over the years from five ridings representing the city in 1980 to eight in 2021. In each federal election but one, the party with the plurality of seats in the city ultimately turns out to be the one with the plurality of seats in Parliament.
Take the Jean Chrétien years, for example. Ottawa was solidly Liberal in those days. There were six ridings in the city, and voters in each of them sent a Liberal to the House of Commons.
That changed when Stephen Harper became Prime Minister in 2006. There were seven ridings in the Ottawa area and four of them had Conservative representatives.
A similar trend can be seen in 1980 and 1984. Four Liberals and one Progressive Conservative were elected in Ottawa in 1980, and the Liberals formed government. In '84, three Progressive Conservatives, one Liberal and one New Democrat were voted in and the Progressive Conservative party formed the government.
The 1988 election was a notable exception, with the city and its newly created riding of Carleton-Gloucester, electing a full slate of Liberal candidates. Brian Mulroney and his Progressive Conservative Party maintained the majority they won in 1984, though they lost nearly three dozen seats.
Since then, Ottawa's voters have largely voted for the eventual government of the day.
There are notable caveats at the riding level. For example, Ottawa-Vanier is considered to be one of the safest Liberal strongholds in Canada. Voters there have voted for a Liberal in every election since 1887, going back to the days when the riding was known as "Ottawa East" and "Russell" before that. Ottawa South has similarly been solidly Liberal since its creation in 1988, though only two people have ever represented the riding in that time: John Manley and David McGuinty.
The riding of Ottawa Centre is a unique battleground in the city, and the only local riding to send a New Democrat to the House of Commons in the past 40 years. While voters in the riding in the heart of the city have sometimes sent Liberals down the street to Parliament, including most recently with outgoing cabinet minister Catherine McKenna, the seat does have strong ties to the NDP. The late Paul Dewar represented Ottawa Centre federally for many years. Before him, former NDP Leader Ed Broadbent briefly held the seat.
The suburban ridings of Ottawa West—Nepean and Orléans often change hands whenever a new government is swept in. Voters in the two ridings, known earlier as Ottawa West and Carleton—Gloucester, respectively, sent Liberals to the House of Commons during the Chrétien and Martin years, but elected Conservatives as Stephen Harper gained power. The Conservatives held those seats until the Liberal sweep in 2015.
Voters head to the polls on Sept. 20, 2021.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
How quietly promised law changes in the 2024 federal budget could impact your day-to-day life
The 2024 federal budget released last week includes numerous big spending promises that have garnered headlines. But, tucked into the 416-page document are also series of smaller items, such as promising to amend the law regarding infant formula and to force banks to label government rebates, that you may have missed.
Which foods have the most plastics? You may be surprised
'How much plastic will you have for dinner, sir? And you, ma'am?' While that may seem like a line from a satirical skit on Saturday Night Live, research is showing it's much too close to reality.
opinion I've been a criminal attorney for decades. Here's what I think about the case against Trump
Joey Jackson, a criminal defence attorney and a legal analyst for CNN, outlines what he thinks about the criminal case against Donald Trump in the 'hush money trial.'
$3.8M home in B.C.'s Okanagan has steel shell for extra wildfire protection
A home in B.C.'s Okanagan that features a weathering steel shell designed to provide some protection against wildfires has been listed for sale at $3.8 million.
Diver pinned under water by an alligator figured he had choice. Lose his arm or lose his life
An alligator attacked a diver on April 15 as he surfaced from his dive, nearly out of air. His tank emptied with the gator's jaws crushing the arm he put up in defence.
Psychologist becomes first person in Peru to die by euthanasia after fighting in court for years
A Peruvian psychologist who suffered from an incurable disease that weakened her muscles and had her confined to her bed for several years, died by euthanasia, her lawyer said Monday, becoming the first person in the country to obtain the right to die with medical assistance.
Mystery surrounds giant custom Canucks jerseys worn by Lions Gate Bridge statues
The giant stone statues guarding the Lions Gate Bridge have been dressed in custom Vancouver Canucks jerseys as the NHL playoffs get underway.
Celebrity designer sentenced to 18 months in prison for smuggling crocodile handbags
A leading fashion designer whose accessories were used by celebrities from Britney Spears to the cast of the 'Sex and the City' TV series was sentenced Monday to 18 months in prison after pleading guilty in Miami federal court on charges of smuggling crocodile handbags from her native Colombia.
Wildfire leads to evacuation order issued for northeast Alberta community
An evacuation order was issued on Monday afternoon for homes in the area of Cold Lake First Nation.