The decision by the Girl Guides of Canada to put a hold on trips to the United States is creating a larger discussion about the Trump effect on travel. Some estimates are that foreign travel to the states has dropped 7 percent since Trump took office. 

That could grow when his revised travel ban takes effect this Thursday.

The travel media in the U.S. have even coined a phrase around what's happening in the U.S. 

They call it "the Trump Slump,” a growing trend among group like the Girl Guides to re-think or altogether avoid travel into the States.

For 12-year-old Aicha Aden, riding a motorized panda bear at the St. Laurent Shopping Centre is about as close as she wants to get to Disney anytime soon.  For someone so young, she already is keenly aware of the discussion around her religion.

“Since I’m Muslim, I feel like if I go to the States,” she says, “there would be a lot of problems for me.”

On this March Break, when travel usually peaks to the U.S., many Ottawa families are spending their money here at home, shopping locally.

“We were thinking of going (to the United States),” says Grade 11 student Israa Hassak,” but not anymore because people may be racist to us because we wear the hijab.”

“What's going on in the U.S. right now,” adds her cousin Nour Hassak, “is not the place to go for Muslims.”

“The U.S. travel industry already has a name for this. It's called the “Trump Slump,” says David Macdonald. Macdonald is a senior economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, located in Ottawa.  He says the Girl Guides of Canada is just the latest group to postpone travel to the U.S. and believes the numbers are telling with respect to the economic impact of those decisions.

“It does appear that travel into the United States is down about 7%,” he says, “and searches for flights into the U.S. is down 17%.  So more of that tourist money that American communities might get, might well be spent in Canada.”

About 800 Canadian Girl Guides travel into the U.S. each year.  The Guides say their decision to postpone that travel is intended to ensure safety and equality for all the girls.

“It's not a political statement,” says Sarah Kiriliuk with Girl Guides of Canada, “it's a reaction to the realities of what's happening in the world right now.”

Scouts Canada has no plans to postpone trips to the U.S.  In a statement, John Petitti with Scouts Canada said, “As with any Scouting activity involving travel,  we encourage our members to plan their trips carefully, to have all required paperwork in order and to always have alternate plans in case of unexpected developments.” 

Both the Ottawa Carleton District School Board and the Ottawa Catholic School Board say no trips have been cancelled so far but added that they will continue to monitor the situation, as will many of the shoppers we spoke with today.

“I’ve always been asked questions at the border,” says shopper Ervin Ruci, “I don't think it's any different now.”

“I do consider if I go there that I don’t want to be stopped because I’m an immigrant,” says shopper Nawal Zayat, shopping at the mall with her two boys today, adding, “It's their loss because instead of spending money there and helping their economy, we are staying here and buying stuff here. It's better for Canada, too.”

If the "Trump Slump" really is a factor, economist David Macdonald says significant dollars are at risk.  According to one study, Canadians spent $19-billion dollars on U.S. services in 2014. 

“To see if drop by 20% or 30% because people don’t want to cross the border will have big impact,” Macdonald said.